June 18, 2025

Markets. Mindsets. Mountains.

Welcome to the June edition of 3 For 3, where we keep it real with three tight takes—one on markets, one on planning, one on life.

Last month, we unpacked the AI gold rush, financial spring cleaning, and the surprising ROI of silence. This time, we’re going global, high-altitude, and back to basics with a plain-speak take on tariffs, Everest season, and how to work your IRA when times get tight. Let’s dive in.

PS: Alphavest’s Aristocrats Model is up 7.90% YTD v. DJIA and SPX +1.19%, and 2.54%–GOT ARISTOCRATS?

Let’s Connect! 


June Manager Spotlight:

Alphavest’s Maven of Alts and June Spotlight goes to: Kate Nevin, TSWS

What SHE SAID…

“TSWS analysis of multiple reports leads us to believe that over the long-term women-led teams can generate additional alpha of 4%. We expect that this diversity boost will help us achieve 12-15% net performance on an annualized basis across a well-diversified portfolio.”

Get some smarts on and a glimpse into TSWS’s portfolio and impressive track record

June 3 for 3

📦 1. Tariffs 101: What They Are, Who Pays, and Why It Matters Now

Tariffs are basically taxes on stuff we import. When the U.S. slaps a 25% tariff on electric vehicles from China—as it did in May—that cost doesn’t just hit Beijing. It hits your wallet.

Right now, the U.S. has over 21% average tariffs on Chinese goods, up from just 3% a few years ago. Tariffs can protect American industries, sure—but they also raise costs for U.S. manufacturers and consumers. We’re talking steel, solar, semiconductors, and more.

With inflation cooling but still sticky, tariffs could quietly crank prices back up. Think of tariffs as a hidden inflation tax—one that businesses pass down the chain.

Bottom line: When trade gets taxed, we all pay.


🏔️ 2. Everest Season Is Over: What the Mountain Still Teaches Us

Another Everest season wrapped in May, with more than 600 summits, 421 permits, and sadly, 4 deaths. The crowds were back, and so were the high-altitude traffic jams.

But Everest remains the ultimate metaphor. Climbing it (as I have) isn’t just about altitude—it’s about attitude. Preparation, pacing, mindset, trust. Whether you’re climbing a peak or navigating your life or business, the mountain is a mirror.

Everest teaches us this: The hardest part is not the mountain—it’s managing the mind. And you don’t have to be in Nepal to take that lesson.


💰 3. IRA Strategies in Tight Times: How to Play Offense (and Defense)

Feeling pinched? Use your IRA as a tool—not just a tax shelter.

Here’s how:

  • Roth Conversions: If income’s down, so is your tax rate. Converting now means more tax-free growth later.

  • Backdoor Roths: For high earners who want in on the Roth party—this is your invite.

  • QCDs: Over 70½? Donate directly from your IRA to charity. It counts toward your RMD but doesn’t raise your tax bill.

The 2025 tax sunset is coming, which means today’s tax rates are possibly the lowest you’ll ever see. Now’s the time to think offense.

Your IRA isn’t just retirement—it’s a strategic weapon, even when the economy’s tight.


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📅 Book Your 3-6-10 Allocation Strategy Session Here

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– The XX Edge, Unlocking Higher
Returns and Lower Risk


Market Update

U.S. equity markets have shown resilience, with notable gains in May helping to offset earlier losses. Here’s a comprehensive update on year-to-date (YTD) performance and key developments during May:

📊 Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance (as of June 17, 2025)

🌍 Broader Context

  • Institutional confidence is increasing, with investor appetite rising and pushing the S&P back into positive territory statmuse.com+15marketwatch.com+15finder.com+15.

  • Mid-June geopolitical tensions (Israel–Iran) triggered a recent pullback, but lifted oil prices only slightly hurt sentiment kiplinger.com+1barrons.com+1.

  • U.S. equities are underperforming compared to international markets, which have seen stronger inflows and returns investors.com+2marketwatch.com+2ft.com+2. Alphavest clients are participating well in International Markets via our Dynamic Equity Model.

🌼 May 2025 Market Highlights

May marked a significant rebound across major indices:

  • S&P 500: Gained 6.2%, its best May performance since 1990, ending a three-month losing streak.

  • Nasdaq Composite: Surged 9.6%, the strongest May since 1997, fueled by tech sector strength.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Increased 3.9%, its largest May gain since 2020.

  • Russell 2000: Rose 3.3%, showing signs of recovery despite ongoing underperformance.

Key Drivers:

  • Easing Trade Tensions: A temporary agreement between the U.S. and China mid-month alleviated some tariff concerns, boosting investor confidence.

  • Strong Corporate Earnings: Particularly in the technology sector, with companies like Amazon and Palantir Technologies posting significant gains.

  • Inflation Data: April’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 2.5% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, suggesting manageable inflation pressures.


🔮 Outlook and Considerations

  • Small-Cap Stocks: Despite recent gains, small-cap stocks continue to lag. Analysts suggest that attractive valuations and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could support a resurgence.

  • Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing concerns about trade policies and potential interest rate hikes could influence market volatility.

  • Broadening Rally: Optimism that sectors like industrials, consumer staples, and financials may contribute more significantly in the latter half of the year.


Alphavest Model Update 2025 YTD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winners & Losers

30-day & YTD Winners:

GOAU, a Gold/Commodity position new to the portfolio this year. Boosting the tactical nature of our Alphavest Dynamic Equity Model, which is 50% of our 6 year Bucket in our 3-6-10 Allocation model, and is now currently 25% in cash and commodities, down from the 60% earlier this year given the move of commodities to the #1 Spot on the Asset line-up in January 2025. Alphavest Dynamic Equity Model is up +2.19% YTD vs. S&P 500 +2.37% over the same period. Of importance: the volatility, or standard deviation of this model is 25% LESS than that of the S&P 500, yet with similar returns YTD.



30-day & YTD Losers:

EOG Resources, a 3-star oil & gas position with a 3.42% dividend, remains in the Alphavest Aristocrats Portfolio. Despite a hefty 12% portfolio position, the Model is up 1.93% YTD vs. DJIA -3.92% YTD.


Cokie’s Take:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cokie (center) on the summit of Mt. Everest–thumbs up and thank you to all who supported this dream and the efforts of Everyday Everest/Hollings Cancer to support getting the mobile health unit back on the road with 3-D mammography. May 23, 2021


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📧 cokie@alphavest.com
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Sent to: cokie@alphavest.com

As always, sending you a Perfect Day,


Advisory Services offered through Red Triangle, LLC DBA Alphavest

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