Cokie

December 2, 2025

“From Clearing to Clarity — Your First Look Toward 2026”

In November, we talked about resilience — how 2025’s market mood swings asked all of us to stay nimble, data-driven, and emotionally steady.

Now, as we close out the year, that theme comes into sharper focus. Much like my family’s farm this fall, the markets have gone through a season of pruning. The overgrowth thinned. Light returned. And what’s left — like the fatwood I found among the stumps — is the material that endures: dense, tested, and ready to burn bright even when the environment is damp.

This month’s 3 for 3 is your bridge into our full 2026 Outlook, coming next week. Think of this as the opening chapter — an invitation to step into the new year with clarity, gratitude, and purpose. The year ahead will reward discipline, diversification, and a level-headed understanding of what actually creates durability in portfolios… and in life.

Let’s align! Cheers, and sending you clarity with purpose through the holiday season and beyond!

3 For 3


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1. Markets: “Finding the Fatwood in a Clearing Market”

As we wrap 2025, markets feel a lot like the pines I had to thin on our land — crowded, competing, and ready for light to break through. Once the overgrowth cleared, the forest reset quickly. Markets are doing the same: creating space for new leadership and healthier growth.

A few defining shifts from this year:

  • Inflation eased meaningfully
  • The Fed and global central banks delivered 50+ cuts
  • The U.S. dollar saw its softest stretch since 1980, down nearly 10%
  • The 10-year Treasury fell from 4.8% to ~3.9%, offering one of the strongest duration tailwinds since 2009.

These are signs of clearing, not collapsing.

Looking ahead to 2026, the “fatwood” — the durable opportunities — is emerging in:

  • Global diversification (historically a 7–12% tailwind when USD drops 10%)
  • Real assets & metals tied to AI-driven energy demand
  • Intermediate-duration bonds regaining return potential
  • Alternatives that buffer traditional risk exposures
  • Quality U.S. equities over hype-heavy growth stories

2025 humbled investors, but it also refined us. Now, many appear overzealous with extended AI and tech concentration or, fearful of a selloff. Where do you fall on the spectrum of market instincts?

2026 will reward preparation, prudence, and purposeful reallocation.

The Alphavest 2026 Outlook drops soon—CLICK HERE to have it sent to your inbox.

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2. Planning: “Recession-Proofing with 3-6-10: Cash, Clarity & a Healthy Dose of Fear”

No fear mongering here—just a check-in. I’ve told most, recession is not close, yet, I sense that when this interest rate reduction cycle reverses, possibly Q32026 ?, the economy may, too, reverse.  So, if frothy tech and thensome, needed pruning this year, financial plans do too. We’re entering a late-cycle environment — not necessarily recessionary, but one that calls for discipline and liquidity.

Alphavest’s 3-6-10 Allocation Plan keeps every dollar aligned with purpose:

  • 3 years: Cash & near-term reserves
  • 6 years: Moderate-risk growth assets
  • 10+ years: Higher-conviction, long-horizon investments

This structure protects you from the cardinal sin: selling long-term assets to fund short-term needs–especially in times when you might should be buying more long-term assets (after/during a selloff/correction).

As we prepare for 2026, we’re encouraging clients to:

  • Revisit budgets with honesty — Inflation cooled, but essentials remain sticky. Trim what’s crowding the things that matter.
  • If you are currently taking portfolios withdrawals for monthly living, hold 36 months of cash/cash equivalents— Conservative on purpose. Cash is emotional oxygen. All others, 12 month could act similarly.
  • Add a healthy dose of grounded fear — Productive fear = smarter spending, delayed big purchases, more mindful commitments.
  • Stress-test your allocations — If markets dropped 15–20%, would your income, expenses, and emotions hold? If not, now’s the moment to adjust.

Recession-proofing isn’t pessimistic — it’s protective. It ensures that when the cycle turns, you move through it with confidence rather than constraint.

Need a 3-6-10 consult or curious how your portfolio stacks up?

How has Alphavest’s 3-6-10 Allocation Plan performed? Dead even with a traditional 60/40 benchmark, yet with less risk, and lower investment cost.

 

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3. Lifestyle: “Resilience as Ritual”

This year showed us — again — that the strongest things don’t avoid stress; they’re shaped by it.

When I found the fatwood among the pine stumps — dense, resin-rich, bright even when damp — I thought of people and portfolios alike. What endures is what’s been refined by challenge.

December invites us to turn that understanding into ritual:

  • Reflect intentionally: Where did pressure refine you? What did it clarify?
  • Prune deliberately: Clear the noise and commitments that dim your light.
  • Practice slow ambition: Small, steady steps compound — in health, relationships, work, and money.
  • Design your 2026 Lifestyle Allocation: Allocate time across health, relationships, learning, rest, and adventure as intentionally as you allocate capital.

As we head into 2026, thank you — truly — for your trust, your conversations, and for letting me walk alongside you in this work. There’s real light after the pruning, and we’re stepping into a year where clarity and discipline will serve us well.

Want to give the 3.0 version of Perfect Day a spin? Prepare for great outcomes!

With gratitude,

Cokie

Winners and Losers

YTD Portfolio Winners

Seagate Technologies/STX tops the YTD winner board. An Alphavest Equity Income  (+19.48% YTD/DJIA +13.88%) Model holding, STX boasts a 1.07% (forward) dividend yield. A strong 2nd place, gold miners holding, GOAU led the alternatives portion of the Alphavest Dynamic Equity Model (+13.21% v. 17.81%).

MTD Winners

MTD winner #1 Cardinal Heatlth/CAH with an impressive 30.39% boost in November—a holding in the Alphavest Aristocrats (+12.45% YTD/DJIA +13.88%) Model–the theme continues to emerge with mega-tech cooling off and non-tech names like Cardinal Health/CAH and Caterpillar/CAT on top of the leader board 2 months in a row.

YTD Portfolio Losers

3 of the Alphavest YTD “losers,” BRO, semi-conductor NXPI and GWW were “pruned” from Alphavest Aristocrats (+12.45% YTD/DJIA +13.88%) Model in Novmember. HD will remain in the Alphavest Equity Income (+19.48% YTD/DJIA +13.88%) Model.

MTD Losers

Alphavest Dynamic Equity Model’s (+13.21% v. 17.81%) small position in cryptocurrency Exchange Traded Fund/ETF, IBIT saw its worst month in over a year. The volatile bitcoin/crypto markets experienced a sharp decline in November, yet has staged a recovery rebound. We continue to believe in the crytpo arena as a suitable alternative investment in tandem with our gold position. Again, semi-conductor holding, NXPI was sold in November.

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