Me again.

Its not typical for me produce a piece like this during euphoric market times—-but too many clients are raising curiosity flags. 

I’m the one inundating you when markets are bad, urging you to look at your statement–unlike most advisors and to check in with us (it’s usually not as bad as clients think, is my experience). 

Not this time: The S&P and NASADAQ are up over 8%+ and 15%+ in the last 30 days.  Most clients are happy with those returns in a year. Yes?

The last several years have rewarded investors with the kind of gains that feel both exhilarating and unsettling. Markets have climbed through inflation scares, recession predictions, geopolitical conflict, aggressive Federal Reserve policy, and nonstop debate about whether AI is fueling the next great bubble.

History tells us that bull markets rarely end when everyone feels comfortable — they often end when optimism meets complacency.

FACTS: The S&P 500 has more than doubled from its October 2022 lows, the beginning of the current BULL market.

It is reasonable to ask whether we are approaching “optimistic complacency.” In light of this impressive run and the risks involved, do historical trends from previous bull markets suggest this one could be coming to a close?

FACTS: ALL Bull markets end….and begin again.

This is a succinct data dump that helps me frame the current Bull Market from our long-time analysts at Nasdaq/Dorsey Wright & Associates/DWA;

My takeaways from the research/data; 

• Since 1949, the S&P 500 has experienced 12 distinct bull markets, including the current cycle.
• Historically, bull markets have lasted an average of 5.5 years and produced gains of approximately 191.5%.
• The current bull market is only about 3.5 years old, with the S&P 500 up just over 100%, suggesting it may still be in the middle innings if history is any guide.
• If the current cycle were to align with historical averages, the market could potentially have roughly two years remaining and still rise nearly 50% further before reaching average historical bull market returns.
• Bull markets historically vary dramatically:
  • The shortest have lasted around 2 years with gains near 50%
  • The longest stretched more than a decade, including the 1988–2000 bull market, during which the S&P 500 gained nearly 600%
• Of the prior 11 bull markets, 7 saw the S&P 500 double, taking an average of 3.9 years to do so — remarkably similar to the 3.5 years it took in the current cycle.
• Historically, after the market initially doubled:
  • Bull markets lasted an average of 3 additional years
  • Markets gained another 80% on average before peaking
• However, history also reminds investors that timing market tops is difficult:
  • 3 of the 7 bull markets ended within six months of doubling

At Alphavest, we believe investors should hold two truths at the same time: confidence AND caution. Confidence because history shows that betting against strong bull markets too early has often been costly. Caution because markets never move upward in a straight line, and periods of exceptional returns are inevitably followed by meaningful volatility.

The challenge is not predicting the exact top — very few investors do that consistently — but building a portfolio capable of participating in long-term growth while remaining resilient during inevitable downturns. Our methodology is BUILT on the difference between TIMING the market and being TACTICAL and a healthy appreciation for cash on hand for those in or near retirement.

That philosophy is exactly why we emphasize our 3-6-10 Allocation in portfolio construction and conversations focused on a fear of the end of the Bull. 

Rather than relying on short-term market timing, the framework is designed to smooth the emotional and financial ups and downs that accompany every market cycle. By aligning capital with distinct time horizons — short-term liquidity needs, intermediate goals, and long-term growth — investors are better positioned to avoid panic-driven decisions during periods of fear while still maintaining exposure to the long-term compounding power of equities. 

Disciplined allocation strategies help ensure that short-term volatility does not derail long-term plans. Better—and the real name of the game—downside protection—specifically, ensuring that “0-9 year money” doesn’t sell off 20-30% (as Bear markets will take with ease from most investors).

So, while history suggests this bull market could still have room to run, it also reminds us that risk never disappears. The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty — it’s to prepare for it thoughtfully, so investors can remain confident regardless of what comes next.  

Where do you fall in the Bull Run guestimate? The end is near? OR XX Years to run?

“Our” money is on 3-6-10. Today, tomorrow, in Bull or Bear markets. 12%+ allocation to cash feels good for our retired clients—and so does 100% equities for our 30-somethings with 30 years until retirement. If you push me, I’ll give you my guestimate. In the meanwhile….

…We’ve got you managed.