October 31, 2024 Election? What election? Instead, let’s muse over the 2nd largest commercial holiday in the US With a spend of $3.1B in candy, per the National Retail Federation, it is indeed, Halloween. Thank you Celts and your 2000 year curse of the candy corn.  October 3 For 3; Spooky earnings, Election thoughts and a case for (Tricky) Alternatives-don’t worry–we’ll do the heavy lifting for you. Today’s trick or treat, however is that inflation is cooling–nearing the Fed’s 2% target–and in the wake of 9.4% read not so long ago—I’d call that a treat. The trick: markets are selling off, we still have another 5 days until the election drama is behind us, and Apple and Amazon report earnings today–SO, quiet the NOISE and get busy planning the best 2025 you can imagine. AND,  Bask in your returns for the last year (they’re great!). VOTE! And remember: We’ve got you managed–INCLUDING your year-end tax loss harvesting. DONE.

3 For 3: 1-Spooky Earnings  Stock Futures Diving as Microsoft, Meta Earnings Spook Markets Amid Super Micro Selloff:   Thanks Barron’s:Big Tech earnings are spooking investors.  READ MORE Alphavest’s Treat: While our Dynamic Core Model is underperforming the tech heavy S&P500 YTD, we are happy with 16.94% YTD and with a sugary sweet 60% less risk with  3 YR standard deviation of only 10.46% (v. S&P 500 16.17%). With the addition of a 35% position to Small Caps in August–an effort to diversify the overly concentrated tech exposure in the broad market–we’ll sleep well underperforming for the short run—our 3 YR track record is solid, yet now below our S&P 500 benchmark at +32.26% v. 43.85% thanks to our diversifying position in small caps–as you can see, we’re convicted here to risk reduction. 3-6 months from today we feel confident that this tactical move away from the overconcentration of Big Tech will have formed an even longer term strategic positioning in the small-mid cap arena.

2-What Election? Got the call yesterday–“Cokie, should we be worried about the election? How is my account positioned going into next week?”   READ MORE To offer more to the political enthusiasts reading, grab this piece on how do Presidential Elections Impact the Market. 3-A case for Alternatives as the 60-40 portfolio gets challenged The case for a 50% stocks, 30% bonds and 20% alternatives portfolio allocation is growing as investors seek to diversify into alternatives as a hedge against a stock and bond market that are each flashing cautionary signals.  READ MORE Alternatives and Access can be TrickyNot all alternatives are created equal–know that we will assess the need for alternatives in your portfolio as well as help in determining what alternatives strategy makes the most sense for you. Lets discuss!

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Winners & Losers

YTD, 30-day Portfolio Winners:YTD Winners: While NVIDA may be all the talk, NU/Nu Holdings and TSM/Taiwan Semiconductor/TSM both model holdings in our Alphavest 10 Year High Conviction Model +20.79% YTD (vs. 21.13% S&P 500) are top of the YTD leaderboard, 2 months running. Our “Sleepy 3rd-5th YTD winners, WMT and BRO hail from our Alphavest Equity Income Model +17.4% YTD (vs. DJIA +13.38%) and our Alphavest Aristocrats Model +23.15% YTD (vs. DJIA +13.38%) model portfolios. MTD Winners: We decided with nice portfolio gains and growing tensions abroad to sell TSM–up 11.98% the last 30 days made that decision easier. Aerospace/Defense giant General Dynamics/GD has replaced TSM in our 10 Year Model. Fun fact about GD’s CEO  Phebe Novakovic she’s a former intelligence officer and was ranked 21st on Fortune’s list of Most Powerful Women in 2023 and also listed as the world’s 29th most powerful woman by Forbes. YTD, 30-day Portfolio Losers:YTD Losers:PBR was sold this month as well as a double-digit loser, despite it’s hefty 12.65% dividend yield. The energy space has not offered the returns we expected amdist foreign turmoil. MTD Losers:Merck’s MTD performance landed it also above on the YTD loser board; priced below “fair value” of $120—and with very few stocks not overvalued, we still own 4 Star MRK. Likewise, 4 Star SNY and 3 Star CSX are priced under Morningstar’s fair value ranking. Vanguard Extended Duration is on watch thru next week’s expected rate cut, as is IBM.

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As always, sending you a Perfect Day,

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