September 30, 2024 To those affected by Hurricane Helene: We are send our heartfelt prayers and Funds to the Red Cross. Friends, clients and followers: JOIN ME in supporting those in need…See my “PS”Pardon any insensitivity conveyed as we communicate the work that has been done here for September’s 3 For 3. The band, the work and the markets move on….so shall we.
And the rate cuts begin….Supersized. What’s in store you must be thinking? OR are you DONE with rate cut talks? Well, I say let’s party like its 1995. That’s my teaser to tempt you to read more on this Fed rate cut cycle….Any Prince fans with me?
This 3 For 3 will cover interest rates ad nauseum, some pre- and post-election market expectation nuggets and a light and airy anniversary dose of “Reinvention & Resilience.”
Happy Anniversary, Alphavest! Thank you to our ‘tribe” for saying yes to the last year, the last 28 years (in some instances, yes!) and thank you for your contribution to our “3 Reasons” campaign that will shape then next 12 months.
Let’s journey back and take a brief tour on rate-cut and pre-and post-election market history. AND, let’s take a moment of gratitude and honor the one year anniversary in this 5th iteration of wealth management for me at Alphavest. Yet another almost 3 decade walkabout in time–and, not too dissimilar to the journey investors have endured during rate cut cycles and pre-election markets; the recipe for success? A dollop of courage, a pinch of grit and a truck load of resilience. At Alphavest, we’ve got you managed.
Don’t miss “Winners and Losers” to see what’s shining and what’s, well, not shining as much, because we’ve got very little losers in the mix! Lastly–Let’s gather! Great opportunities to learn, grow and connect! Read to the end, and RSVP and join us! I’d love to see YOU at an event, soon.
In the meantime, Love your neighbors. Research both sides of your vote. Be BOLD. Grow. Quiet the noise. AND, never forget your greatest asset:The ability to give back.
“To whom much is given, much is required” -Luke 12:48 and as requoted by JFK in addressing Vanderbilt University in 196
3 For 3:1-Interest Rates:
Party like its 1995? Yes. This IS NOT 2001. Powell’s supersized entre’ to this cycle is not analagous to 2001 as some may posture.
See performance of the S&P 500 one year following first rate cut, back to 1984 with corresponding recessions (1995 resulted in NO recession) in the graphic to follow. Hence my suggestion, to party like its 1995–until data or indicators tell us otherwise.
First, let’s address (and dispel) the buzz about the possible likeness of last week’s “Supersize” rate cut to Greenspan’s .5% rate cut surprise in 2001. THIS is NOT THAT. This rate cut cycle feels more like 1995 than 2001–albeit I entered the land of Greenspan and rate cuts in 1996–I was kinda there. That decade was my PhD. My double board certification. My rate-cut-market-walkabout in preparation for 2008. In hindsight, 2001-2003 was much worse than 2008. Big lessons–and gratitude for 28 years into my PhD in tactical asset management and managing client emotions in downturns; hint: emotions are easiest managed when we “simply” side-step the downturn (ENTER: Alphavest Dynamic Model followed by audience applause) THIS is NOT 2001. Why? Unemployment is stable and appears to be declining, and a normal/healthy inflation rate. Yes, goods are still expensive—yet 2.5% inflation, down from 2.89% last month, and 3.67% last year is a trend we like, is the lowest we’ve seen since 2021. Yet more rate cuts are in the offing if you look at the FOMC “dot plot” you’ll find expectation of rates sub 3% by YEND 2026.
For 2023/2024 we were dead on with a call of higher for longer for rates, and despite the recent cut and more anticipated in 2024, higher for longer is still our posture–long gone are the 0% interest rate days and 3% mortgages. Add to that our “no landing” or what you will hear and read as a “Soft landing,” or no recession posture–with unemployment at 4.2% and well below the 2001 rate of 5.8%, again, I say let’s party like its 1995.
The performance of the S&P 500 after the onset of rate cuts has been a mixed bag and has been almost an inverse of bonds. Equities have performed well during short cycles of relatively shallow cuts; performance has been considerably worse during the three periods when the Fed cut rates by more than 500 bps. This likely has more to do with the economy than with the actual impact of interest rates as large cuts tend to coincide with more serious economic downturns like those in the early 2000s and 2008.
Again, THIS is NOT THAT. Above, see performance of the S&P 500 one year following first rate cut, back to 1984 with corresponding recessions (1995 resulted in NO recession). Hence my suggestion, let’s party like its 1995–until data or indicators tell us otherwise. Below, see another version, with RECESSION data/gray bars (note: note from the 1995 rate cut cycle):
Let’s compare the rate cut cycles of 1995 and 2001: Analyzing the similarities and differences in terms of interest rates, inflation, and unemployment, the key metrics for abating recessions or for measuring the health of the economy can help us formulate confidence in consumer spending, corporate profits and hence market performance. Here’s a breakdown:
Interest Rates:- In 1995, the federal funds rate (the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight) was around 6.03%. This is according to data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).- In contrast, in 2001, the federal funds rate averaged around 4.83% during that year.
Both years experienced relatively stable interest rates compared to other periods. However, there was a slight decrease in interest rates between these two years.
Inflation:- In 1995, the inflation rate (measured by the Consumer Price Index) was around 2.0%. This means that prices for goods and services increased at a slow pace during this year.- In contrast, in 2001, the inflation rate was also relatively low, averaging around 2.3% according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In both years, there were stable and low levels of inflation. However, there was a slight increase in inflation between these two years.
Unemployment:- In 1995, the unemployment rate stood at around 5.6% according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This indicates that about 5 out of every 100 people who wanted a job could not find one.- In contrast, in 2001, the unemployment rate was slightly higher, averaging around 5.8%.
In both years, the unemployment rates were relatively low compared to historical standards. However, there was an increase in unemployment between these two years .To summarize: Interest Rates: Slight decrease from 1995 to 2001.Inflation: Slight increase from 1995 to 2001.Unemployment: Increase from 1995 to 2001.The most notable difference was an increase in inflation and unemployment between 1995 and 2001 and it should be noted that unemployment today, rests quite solidly at 4.2% and is not headed for the 5% and 5.8% we experienced in 1995 and 2001…I will repeat my sentiments: THIS is NOT THAT. IF we see an uptick in this metric, however, its time to get tactical, and put Prince and the Revolution back in the record bin.
While we continue to monitor fundamental data and market volatility, and weigh these in light of your portfolio exposures and our Alphavest Model holdings, we still believe the US economy is just beginning to reap the benefits of changed labor dynamics, even if the pace of hiring has calmed.
When it comes to inflation, we’re also cautious about its future path and believe there could be more to come. Macro strategist Otavio Costa recently stated on X: “While the macro environment today differs from that of the 1970s or 1940s, a lesson from history remains: inflation tends to develop through waves. We have recently witnessed the conclusion of the first wave and are likely in the process of reaching a bottom in the recent deceleration period, with a new upward trajectory underway.”
For now, the good news is that with the current rate cut and the prospect of further rate cuts markets are somewhat pleased. The lingering questions remain: if the employment picture is healthier than the numbers would suggest (which we believe to be the case), and if inflation has yet to run its “last mile,” does the Fed run the risk of letting markets overheat into year end and the new year with continued supersized cuts? Time will tell.
Until indicators tell us otherwise, we will manage on and party like its 1995.
2-Pre- and Post-Election Stock Market Nuggets:Spoiler alert: there’s not any data that supports any substantial portfolio return differences in an election year (except for election years and incumbent Republican wins–see below), nor for returns during a Democrat versus Republican four-year administration. Pretty interesting.
I gave GPT4ALL a spin and found this;According to historical data, the S&P 500 index has generally shown positive growth during both Democratic and Republican administrations. Here’s an approximate breakdown:1. Under Democratic Presidents (since World War II):- Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945) – No S&P 500 data available for this period, as it was created in 1957.- Harry Truman (1945-1953) – The market returned an average of around 8% per year during his administration.- John F. Kennedy (1961-1963), Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969), Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) and Bill Clinton (1993-2001) combined, the market returned an average of around 14% per year.- Barack Obama (2009-2017) – The S&P 500 increased by more than 186%, from approximately 800 to over 2,300 points during his presidency.
2. Under Republican Presidents (since World War II):- Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961) – The market returned an average of around 4% per year during his administration.- Richard Nixon (1969-1974), Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), George H.W. Bush (1989-1993), George W. Bush (2001-2009) and Donald Trump (2017-2021) combined, the market returned an average of around 14% per year.
After some fact checking, my math offers; (Since 1945) Democrats: +14% per year Republicans: +11.9% per year
Not too compelling one way or the other, IMO. What say ye?
3-It’s Been a YEAR: Reinvention & Resilience Happy Anniversary, Alphavest!
Thank you to our ‘tribe” for saying yes to the last year. “Unwinding” from the Atlanta Team after 7 years was not a decision that came lightly. The challenge to reinvent, and travel down the “road less traveled” was one presented to us almost overnight. Our Team accepted the challenge, choose to keep needs of our clients, first, which also meant, the need to reinvent, separate and apart from our former Team. The timeline we endured—and in turn, you endured, proves our collective resilience. YOU are our Team. We’re honored and grateful and BEYOND proud of what remains, and excited about our path forward. To share that we lost 2–TWO- clients in the transition over the last year is a statistic that humbles me and makes our Team want to work harder each and every day to continue to earn your trust and appreciation.
I’ve shared with several of you that part of the challenge presented was a tempting fork in the road. One path lead to a lucrative retirement payout, and a one-year “sunset” provision. As a new “empty nester,” this was more than tempting. The other path presented an uphill opportunity; “The Road Less Traveled.” M. Scott Peck opens this timeless gem with, “Life is difficult.” In accepting that axiom, we transcend it, and the difficult is no longer difficult. Instead, the road yields fruit (my words, my truth). Thank you for affirming this truth for me and my Team and our decision to continue as Fiduciaries for you and your families… and your family’s, families for decades and generations to come! Truly an honor.
Now, for clients of 1 or 28 years (in some instances, yes!) thank you for your contribution to our “3 Reasons” campaign. Your responses will shape then next 12 months of effort, attention and re-investment in the company–we want those investments to be aligned with what you derive as valuable in our advisory relationship. The last 12 months we invested heavily in people and technology. Human capital will always be a place we invest, whenever profits and people make that possible. Your “3 Reasons” are shaping greatly where our dollars go in 2025.
Your top 3 Reasons thus far for WHY you choose Alphavest; Trust Expertise (Comprehensive Financial Scope of Knowledge) Individualized Planning Solutions/Advice
Other areas/responses that we will always strive to excel; attention to detail, customer service/staff, client stewardship/appreciation.
With Alphavest equity investment models all surpassing or quite near benchmarks YTD and for the last 12 months, and all UP double digits, you can imagine that the Team was intrigued that the least of the “3 Reasons” were regarding superior portfolio performance. In the end, we recognize performance is key to attaining you and your family’s wealth goals—and we know you would agree that if we weren’t excelling in the performance category, we wouldn’t have been in the business 28 years! Needless to say, we will always be vigilent in our portfolio efforts.
Bottom line, anticipate dollars towards a deeper expertise in areas of Trust/Estate/Foundation endeavors; In this next iteration of reinvention, and as we embrace the greatest wealth transfer of all time, we’ll be striving to meet the needs of those who not only desire to effectively transition wealth from one generation to the next, but to also endoctrinate the values that helped create that wealth in the first place.
This endeavor requires Alphavest to continue in a direction we have always travelled, yet in a more concerted way; since 2007 we set out to serve the needs of 30 families in a comprehensive approach with a growing network of curated professionals to suit each clients specifics needs and desires. Today, we are ALL IN in this effort. As we more concertedly add time and investment to the almost 3 decades of consultants, investment managers, CPAs, attorneys, and banking professionals we seek to add even more diverse and deep expertise to our “toolkit.” This effort will be known as Alphavest 30Collective, the newest branch of the firm.
Add to those initiatives a relentless pursuit of earning your trust, every day, in good markets and bad. The cherry on top of our Anniversary sundae.
Haven’t chimed in on your 3 Reasons? Submit yours TODAY! Thank you again for the last year—here’s to the next 28!
Multi-asset class Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) Investment Strategist • Client Portfolio Manager • Public and private markets BA Northwestern University MBA/Finance Northwestern-Kellogg School of Mgt Not all sharp moves in financial markets are driven by rapid changes in the economic outlook. Unexpected changes in the financial structure of the markets can also force repricing.
Last month in Charleston, we discussed why it’s important not to take all economic data at face value in looking at equity and bond markets. So far in 2024, we have witnessed economic and stock market performance defying what traditional indicators would predict. Today’s US economy has changed structurally post COVID: the nature of work has changed, energy is being used for political and economic reasons, and due to de-globalization.
1. The economy is strong and growing, not having a soft, let alone a hard, landing. 2. The August unemployment reading reflected a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previous frantic pace of hiring – not the result of elevated layoffs typical of economic downturns. Since, a slight decline is pointing to stable labor data. 3. While inflation has declined, “sticky” inflationary pressures remain, yet are also stable/declining and we’re aware that we could experience “inflation waves” in 2025 This year, our views that the economy is stronger than the numbers would suggest have paid off as we have embraced measured risk-taking in US markets and abroad. While Technology and other growth-related sectors have driven most of this performance since 2023, looking ahead to year end, we expect to see increased contributions from value-related sectors:
While NVIDA may be all the talk, NU/Nu Holdings and TSM/Taiwan Semiconductor/TSM both model holdings in our Alphavest 10 Year High Conviction Model +20.79% YTD (vs. 21.13% S&P 500) are top of the YTD leaderboard. Our “Sleepy 3rd-5th YTD winners hail from our Alphavest Equity Income Model +17.4% YTD (vs. DJIA +13.38%) and our Alphavest Aristocrats Model +23.15% YTD (vs. DJIA +13.38%) model portfolios.
The shift from growthy tech has shifted in the last 30 days to favor holdings in our dividend models; 30 day winner, and a holding in our Alphavest Equity Income Portfolio +17.4% YTD (vs. DJIA +13.38%), IBM is up 33.11% YTD and boasts an impressive dividend yield of 3.12%.
YTD, 30-day Portfolio Losers: NOTE: only ONE holding on our Loser Leaderboard has a negative return YTD. Alphavest 10 Year High Conviction Model +20.79% YTD (vs. 21.13% S&P 500) holding, PBR. We continue to enjoy double digit dividend yield with PBR and it maintains a 3 Star Morningstar rating and trades at a significant discount to its enterprise fair value.
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As always, sending you a Perfect Day,
Advisory Services offered through Red Triangle, LLC DBA Alphavest
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Let’s compare the rate cut cycles of 1995 and 2001:
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