This will be very technical, but if you commit to reading it, it should bring a glimmer of tinsel and mistletoe. So, get comfy and put on your thinking cap.
HILO Index, Our Hope indicator?
One indicator we look at to measure the overbought/oversold state of the market is the NYSE High Low Index. The HILO index is a 10 day moving average of those stocks in the NYSE that are making new highs relative to those stocks that are making new lows.  This reading most recently crossed back below the 10% level, which is typically looked at as the threshold where we would begin to expect the market to begin going back up.
What Can We Hope For?
Don’t get bogged down in the overwhelming numbers on the chart below, lets focus on the bottom line….the S&P 500 has average returns of of 37.65%  1 year following the index crossing this 10% threshold level.  More conservatively, when the forward returns from 2008 and 2009 are removed, we are still left with an average return of 18.55%.
Extreme Action This Week
Looking at the daily calculation used in the 10-day moving average, each of the four trading days this week are actually in the 30 lowest daily readings we have seen in the history of the indicator. The other days on this list were found close to or at market bottoms around 2008, 2009, 2011, 2015, and 2016. That’s extreme. This is why this week is hard to watch and stomach. Staying true to our indicators and being disciplined in our investment decisions and not reacting to extremes is what Alphavest DOES WELL; constantly monitoring, adjusting and allocating your portfolio with one mission: to mitigate downside risk and capture upside returns.  
While we cannot predict whether we are currently at or near a market bottom–history tells us that such washed out levels of the HILO indicator have historically preceded periods of positive market returns. Wouldn’t that be a great gift for 2019!?

Alphavest’s belief is that this correction is an over-reaction to interest rate fears, tariff risks, and geopolitical uncertainties and that markets should stabilize in the short term as fears subside and economic fundamentals continue to show strength.  The above data should offer more than our  “belief.”  Santa Baby, We BELIEVE.

The Liberated Investor