July 3 for 3: Resilience, Rotation & Results
If June felt like a rollercoaster, that’s because it was. In last month’s 3 For 3, we talked about investing through emotion, market leadership, and the discipline required in rapidly moving markets. Since then, the S&P 500 has staged one of the most dramatic rebounds in recent memory. 

The index dropped nearly 11% from February to April, only to rebound over 13% through early July, hitting record highs by Independence Day. 

This isn’t just market noise—it’s a signal. 2025’s first half has been a masterclass in emotional resilience, underscoring why dynamic, risk-aware investing is not just helpful—it’s necessary.

Let’s…3 For 3!


July Manager Spotlight:

Yie-Hsin Hung, president and CEO, State Street Global Advisors/SSGA

What SHE SAID…
…about diversity in leadership and the workforce;
 “…to have those diverse perspectives, experiences and different points of view around the table,” she said. “We come to decisions, we deliver better outcomes and we identify things that we might not have thought of if we didn’t have that kind of group.”
Alphavest utilizes SSGA’s tax-sensitive investment portfolios.

July 3 for 3: Resilience, Rotation & Results


Because reacting emotionally is optional—but expensive.


Alphavest’s mid-year investment theme is built around three pillars: 
Resilience, Rotation, and Results. Here’s what they mean for your portfolio.


1. Resilience: Adapting to Uncertainty with Purpose

2025 has been defined by uncertainty. Slower global growth, stickier inflation, evolving trade policy under the Trump administration, and an increasingly divided Federal Reserve have created a volatile macro environment. According to State Street, today’s portfolios were largely built for “a world of rising growth, stable inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and global cooperation”—the exact opposite of today’s reality.


With GDP growth expected to slow to 1.3% (down from 2.8% in 2024), inflation forecast to rise to 3.2%, and unemployment projected to reach 4.4%, the so-called Misery Index is on track to hit its highest non-recession level since 2006. Add to this the Fed’s policy rate expected to remain above 4%—well above the 40-year average of 3.5%—and it’s clear that traditional 60/40 portfolios are under pressure.


At Alphavest, we’ve responded with intent:
  • We’ve deployed alternative strategies like market-neutral and long/short equity funds to offset rising cross-asset volatility.
  • We’ve introduced principal-protected structured notes, aiming to defend against further downside while preserving meaningful upside.
  • And we’re evaluating real assets—including gold and infrastructure—their historically low correlations and ability to perform during inflationary stress make these non-correlated securities attractive diversifiers.

Volatility-adjusted returns across Alphavest models have improved since Q4 2024, with Sharpe ratios up an average of 18%. In this climate, resilience isn’t passive—it’s earned through active, diversified, and forward-thinking decisions.

 

2. Rotation: Positioning Ahead of the Pack

Despite headlines dominated by the tech rally, there are quiet signals that leadership is shifting. According to Bank of America, equal-weighted indexes have begun to outperform their cap-weighted counterparts—a possible sign of broadening market participation. Meanwhile, dividend-rich sectors like utilities and industrials have shown improving relative strength.
State Street’s midyear outlook adds important context: U.S. equities are currently trading at a 26% premium to their long-term forward P/E ratio, while global earnings growth forecasts have been revised down—by 200 basis points globally and by a staggering 529 basis points in the U.S. That means much of the current performance is riding on increasingly fragile assumptions.
At Alphavest, our strategy is calibrated to capture rotation before it’s obvious:
  • We’re building exposure to undervalued international markets, which remain under-owned after years of U.S. outperformance.
  • We’re overweighting dividend-yielding stocks with strong free cash flow and manageable debt levels.
  • We’re carefully watching policy shifts and currency moves, with the Fed’s central bank voter disagreement index nearly doubling since January—a strong indicator that future rate paths are anything but settled.
Rotation isn’t about abandoning what worked—it’s about embracing what’s next. By looking past headline leaders, we uncover opportunity before it’s priced in.

3. Results: Performance Backed by Process

In a market largely driven by a narrow group of tech stocks, Alphavest’s flagship models have not only held their own—they’ve outperformed, without leaning on overvalued names.

  • Alphavest Aristocrats Model: +11.01% YTD (0.0% expense ratio)
  • Alphavest Equity Income Model: +10.52% YTD (0.03% expense ratio)


That’s significantly stronger than the Dow (+5.9%) or the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+6.2%) year-to-date—and it was achieved with virtually no exposure to mega-cap tech. Our secret? It’s not a secret at all:

  • Consistent dividends from quality companies offer downside protection and steady compounding.
  • rules-based investment process eliminates emotional whipsaw and reactionary pivots.
  • And our low-fee, no-conflict structure ensures alignment with client outcomes—not product sales.
These results are also resilient: even as State Street notes a surge in CEO pessimism and a 3-quarter streak of rising “headwinds” in earnings call transcripts, Alphavest portfolios have stayed the course—outperforming not just on paper, but in real risk-adjusted terms.

With the market and economy offering mixed signals—and soft data diverging from hard data—it’s never been more important to lead with strategy. That’s why Alphavest’s commitment to data-driven decisions, dynamic management, and comprehensive planning remains unwavering.

The markets may be uncertain, but your strategy doesn’t have to be.
We’re here when you need us. 

Let’s connect!



Partner with Alphavest! Inquire about Alphavest Partner POINTS for Events, Reviews, and Referrals!


“To win in the next economy, investors need to recognize the world’s current challenges, acknowledge the acceleration of change, and embrace the potential for more solution-building, fueled by more inclusive talent pools and capital markets.”- The XX Edge, Unlocking Higher Returns and Lower Risk



Market Update

Market Update: June 2025 & Year-to-Date Highlights

June marked a robust rebound in U.S. equities, with major indexes reaching new all-time highs, driven by easing trade tensions and strong economic indicators.
  • S&P 500: Gained 5.1% in June, closing at a record 6,204.95. YTD, the index is up 5.5%
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 4.5% in June, ending at 44,094.77. YTD gain stands at 3.6%
  • Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 6.6% in June, closing at a record 20,273.46. Up 5.5% YTD
This performance is notable as it follows a sharp 20% drop earlier in the spring, underscoring the market’s resilience

Commodities: Gold Shines, Oil Slips

  • Gold: Up nearly 25% YTD, recently trading above $3,300 per ounce, as investors turned to safe havens amid macro uncertainty
  • Oil: Down roughly 11% YTD, with WTI crude averaging $67.60 per barrel in June due to elevated OPEC+ output and softening global demand.
  • Bonds: Strongest First Half Since 2020
The U.S. Treasury market saw its best start to the year since 2020, with the 10-year yield falling 35 basis points through June—the steepest semiannual drop in five years. This rally was fueled by easing inflation pressures and a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, which also led to declining oil prices.


  1. YCharts, Monthly Market Wrap: June 2025ycharts.com  2 3
  2. Associated Press, Wall Street Ends First Half Strong After Spring Reboundapnews.com 
  3. Vantage Markets, 2025 Mid-Year Market Recapvantagemarkets.com 
  4. OCBC Bank, 2H25 Commodities Outlookocbc.com 
  5. Barron’s, Bond Market Finds Relief as Inflation Cools, Yields Dropbarrons.com

Alphavest Model Update 2025 YTD:



Winners & Losers

30-day & YTD Portfolio Winners

30-day & YTD Winners:

New Equity Income holding Seagate Technologies/STX takes BOTH MTD and YTD winner. Time really was on our side here with the addition of STX in May, helping theAlphavest Equity Income Portfolio boast a YTD return of 10.63% vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average/DJIA return of 5.31%. With a dividend yield of 1.90%, STX is beating the DJIA (1.53% Yield)  and its industrial counterparts nicely this year on returns and yield.







30-day & YTD Portfolio Losers:

30-day & YTD Losers:

Its nice when your YTD loser board only has 2 positions that are down! Home Depot/HD and Procter and Gamble/PG still remain staunch members of our Alphavest Equity Income, again, with a YTD return of 10.63% vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average/DJIA return of 5.31%–and, these holdings are the smallest holdings at 5% each in the Model.






Want up-to-date info on all Alphavest’s Investment Models?



Cokie’s Take:



WHAT museum is this red, white and blue hanging in and who is the artist? 






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